POLITICS: Mali election: The winds of change, or deja vu all over again?

On August 12, incumbent Ibrahim Boubacar Keita will face Soumaila Cisse in a runoff vote, in a repeat of the 2013 poll.

The results from Mali's presidential election were finally announced on Thursday, with incumbent President Ibrahim Boubacar Keita's share of votes falling short of the 50 percent required to secure an outright victory.

The 73-year-old Keita - or "IBK" as he is known in Mali - won 41 percent of Sunday's vote.

He will now seek a second five-year term by contesting an August 12 runoff against second-place finisher Soumaila Cisse, a former finance minister and chairman of the West African Economic and Monetary Union, who garnered 18 percent.

The voting process encountered numerous obstacles, including rigging allegations and attacks carried out by an al-Qaeda-allied armed group operating in northern Mali.

Violence cancelled voting in three percent of polling stations and disrupted it in one-fifth, particularly in the central Mopti region where a recent surge in interethnic killings discouraged many residents from casting their ballots.

Mali's central government has little control over its northern regions, where it relies on a United Nations peacekeeping mission and French troops to assure some limited degree of security.

Such challenges notwithstanding, the July 29 vote has ushered in an extraordinary moment in Malian political history.

As opposition leaders have pointed out, never before has a sitting president's bid for re-election been forced into a runoff vote.

With the field of candidates narrowing from 24 in the first round to just two, the opportunity for an opposition upset has never been greater - and IBK's campaign must go all-out to convince sceptical voters that he deserves a second term.


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WATCH Mali: Candidates claim election rigging (2:25)

'The inverse of religion'
Looking ahead to the second round of voting, perhaps the key question may prove to be whether voters distrust the sitting president more than they mistrust his opponent.

IBK, who tends to downplay the gravity of the threats facing his country and has referred to spiralling insecurity as merely "residual", is widely seen as out-of-touch.

Yet, many Malians who might otherwise be expected to vote against the unpopular incumbent see Cisse as little better.

They might choose to stay home rather than vote to replace one member of the old guard with another.

Low turnout in the second round would work in IBK's favour. Participation in the first round was reported at 43 percent, six points lower than in 2013.

As described by political scientist Jaimie Bleck, Malians have long tended to view their nation's political process as inherently dishonest and ill-suited to the public good - "the inverse of religion", she writes.

This may explain why surveys have shown that Malians have grown increasingly dissatisfied with the way democracy works in their country, even as they still see it as the best form of government.

Under the best of circumstances, if the August 12 runoff goes off smoothly and its results are seen as trustworthy, the winner will then face the daunting task of bringing Malians' experience with their dysfunctional government into line with their lofty democratic ideals.